APW Exclusive: Kerry-Edwards to Take Election in November
Thursday, July 22, 2004
A Penny's Worth is prepared to call the 2004 presidential election in favor of Kerry and Edwards. Note that this is not an endorsement; it is a prediction. I like Kerry. Not in the sense of, "Does she like me like me or just like me?" More in the sense of, "Who do you like in the third at Aqueduct?"
Consider:
--Gore was inept as a candidate, and he still won the popular vote. He "lost" (wink, wink) Florida by a hair, and he lost Tennessee and Arkansas as well. And he didn't use Clinton in his campaign at all, despite southerner Clinton's popularity, because he wanted to distance himself from the impeached receiver of oral copulation.
--Kerry is willing to play hardball-- nasty ugly hardball-- in a way that Bush and Rove do and Gore didn't seem to have the organization (or stomach?) for.
--Clinton: he's ba-ack! His place on the familiar cycle of fame in America-- rise, fall from grace, redemption, book tour-- places him squarely ready to be an asset to the Kerry campaign. In the southern states where Kerry may not play well, he can send in the Clinton-Edwards team. Man, Hillary must be simmering in her juices over that one.
--More on Clinton: He is now an elder statesman who is well-positioned to second-guess Bush's policy on the Middle East (he's already spoken publicly about how he warned Bush that the Wahhabis in Al Qaeda were his biggest security concern, but that Bush seemed intent on setting his sights on the Ba'athist Iraqis.) Clinton has a way of attacking without attacking. I mean, hell, he FEELS your pain!
Bottom line, A Penny's Worth thinks that Kerry may leave something to be desired as a candidate (like say a position), but that his tactical abilities, debating skills (Gore was a snore), hard-ball-playing organization, and asset of Clinton and Edwards on the campaign trail, will enable him to hold the democratic base Gore took despite himself (which was greater than 50% after all), and add a state or two (Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee are southern states which Edwards will help place in the win column, especially with Clinton's help). That adds up to a win for the Democrats. Unless another "failure of intelligence" (wink wink) leads to a terrorist attack on American soil between now and November, timed to allow Bush to position (as he loves to do) any thought of political opposition to his policies as treason.
By the way-- and this may be a hedge-- but Al Qaeda and the Wahhabis believe they disrupted the political process in Spain with that train bombing; right after, the "Get Spain out of Iraq" guy won the election. So it would be no surprise to see them attempt a similar move in the US in an election year. Of course, they hate Bush and his relationships with the Saudis (Wahhabis want all infidels off the Arabian Peninsula, and the Bush/Saudi ties are in direct opposition), so any such attempt to disrupt our process may only serve to assure that the guy they hate gets 4 more years. If only lunatics were logical...
Labels: The politics
Posted by: --josh-- @ 10:31 AM
Good stuff Josh. Finally getting around to reading your blog posts. Actually, North Carolina may as much in play as either Ark. or Tenn.
- Shmolnick
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