I have 2 predictions for the election Tuesday. I am loath to call a winner at this point, but I do have two predictions.

(1) Kerry will do a little better across the board than the polls show. Not crazy better, but say one to two percentage points state-by-state. I am making this call because all political polling is telephone-based, and telephone pollers can't call cell phones. There are a growing number of people who use their cell phones as their primary or exclusive phones-- maybe 6 %? -- and who therefore aren't in these polls. The 6 % is mainly young people, say ages 18-30; my wife has 3 nephews in their 20s and we have cell numbers only for all of them. Young people skew democratic. Now, sure, they also tend not to vote. But there have been a lot of last minute registrations, and these are apparently skewing young. So I'm calling Kerry to out-perform the poll numbers in every state by a point or two.

(2) I've seen a number of people whose opinions I really respect call Kerry landslides-- upward of 300 electoral votes. That strikes me as wildly optimistic, but these are keenly analytical people who assure me they think they have it sussed. What I am seeing is an election that is far too close to be over Wednesday morning. It strikes me that if any state has a margin between candidates that is less than the number of provisional ballots cast in that state, and if without that state the EC can't be called, then you have to have a recount. You do, dontcha? And I think that scenario is more likely than not, especially with both sides making sure voters who are confronted by registration snafus at the polling place cast provisional ballots, and both parties determined already not to get out-lawyered. It actually seems like a recount somewhere is the most likely scenario.

*************

My friend Sam writes: "One thing that does amaze me about the Republicans is their willingness to be in total thrall to George W. Bush. By any measure, this is a failed Presidency: A war based on a lie, The Nation's greatest enemy never caught, the economy in the toilet, etc., etc."

See Sam, this is why I'm not s Democrat. Kerry is a fucking idiot. Kerry is in as much thrall as anyone. His response to Bush waging an unjust war is to say, "I would hunt the terrorists down and kill them." Maybe Monday he should up the ante and offer to rip out a terrorist's heart with his own two hands and eat it. Instead of calling Bush on his quintessential Bushness, Kerry's pitch seems to be, "Hey, I'm macho too, and I won't raise your taxes either." He's losing the war of rhetoric to a moron.

Which leads me to my next point, Kerry is really nowhere near as smart as he seems to think he is. He's very proud of being the smarter of the two candidates. No offense dear readers, but any one of the six of us running against Bush would be the smarter of the two. So it aint no big accomplishment.

*************

So to sum up, on Tuesday I will be voting for the fucking idiot instead of the very bad president. Thank you America for blessing me with the right to choose.

Labels: The politics