APN prediction: The Vice Presidential debate will be the most historical Vice Presidential debate since--

Oh, wait. The Veep debates don't matter worth a damn. Sorry about that. What was I smoking?

There can be no question that Kerry carried the day in round 1. No one scored any policy points, but again, this isn't really a debate, it is a TV SHOW, and Kerry "won" because he looked better on TV. (Indeed a female co-worker who listened to the first part on the car radio, then got home and tuned in on TV, said Bush came off much better on the radio. No joke-- that was what happened to Nixon.) Bush looked flustered and frustrated and basically like a little boy who was told he couldn't have any candy. You really don't want the leader of the free world losing his cool quite so easily. Believe me, the Dems are gloating (I get their relentless emails-- and to think I register Independent just to avoid the direct marketing...)

In the wake of the debates, I am amazed by 2 facts-- (1) that 60 million people watched (that's more than Who Wants to Marry My Dad?); and, (2) That the polls have shown such a response. Bush goes from dead heat to up 11 points after the convention; then he loses it all after the first debate. You know how I feel about the beauty pagaent total US number; total US polls are asinine when we have an electoral college, and if you don't believe me, ask president Gore. But one thing is becoming certain-- the polls flip flop more often than Kerry. (In fact, they flip flop even more than Bush SAYS Kerry does.)

Anyway, a couple of points:

1. To hell with the undecided voters. I saw a poll today that had Kerry at 49%, Bush at 47%. That totals 96%. I figure Nader gets a percent or 2. So doesn't that mean there really aren't any undecided voters who are likely to vote (the general screening criterion for political polls)? Otherwise, shouldn't it be, like, 41% to 39%?

2. This leads me to the next point-- obviously each candidate has the most to gain by getting out the base. I believe the single thing that will have the most impact on the election as of now will be the weather on election day. Because when push comes to shove, the weather has more impact on turnout at this point than Bush, Kerry, or Springsteen.

3. For all the Dem gloaters, the likelihood that Bush messes up this badly again is slim. His handlers are too good. Like a football team, he's been studying tape all week, and he will not make the same mistakes twice. The only question about the debates is, will he find new ones to make?

I really have so much music to talk about-- THREE life-altering Allman Brothers shows in Atlanta; the discovery there of a new bona fide blues goddess (Donna Hopkins; check her out here); sharing the stage with Jill Sobule; Brian WIlson's smiLE album. I'll get to it all, I promise.

Labels: The politics